“A tremendous slowdown is forecast over the next few years compared to what we’ve experienced during the last five years,” said Stan Smith, director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “The state has not experienced a decline of this magnitude since the mid-’70s, when we were in a national recession.”

The Sunshine State is expected to add an average of only about 209,000 residents a year between 2007 and 2010, compared with annual increases of about 418,000 people between 2002 and 2006, he said.

Although Florida remains a major destination for retirees, far more young and middle-aged people move into the state to find work than their older counterparts arrive to retire, Smith said. But declining job opportunities have stanched the influx of younger people, he said.

“The vast majority of Florida’s population growth is due to migration, and during a recession the rate of job creation slows down in Florida,” he said.

The biggest group moving to the state during the last four or five decades has typically been those in their 20s and 30s, with those 65 and older accounting for only about 15 percent of in-migration, Smith said. But younger people in their 20s and 30s also make up the biggest share of those leaving the state, which is why Florida became the nation’s oldest state after World War II, he said.

Robust real estate markets and burgeoning construction fueled Florida’s growth from 2002 to 2006, just as it did during the boom years of 1971 to 1974, Smith said. In turn, the housing market’s decline dramatically curbed population growth after 2006, just as a national recession in the ’70s sharply limited expansion between 1974 and 1977, he said.

Another reason growth typically slows during a recession in addition to the availability of fewer jobs is that people have difficulty selling their houses, which delays their move, he said.

“We’ve certainly seen a slowdown in economic growth nationally, and it’s even possible we may be in a recession right now, although we won’t know for sure until later this year,” he said.

Projections call for Florida’s population to return to more normal growth levels of about 317,000 a year between 2010 and 2020, similar to the 1980s and 1990s, Smith said. Although there also was a slowdown in growth during recessions in the 1980s and 1990s, it was nowhere near the steep decline of the 1970s or that which is taking place now, he said.

“It’s really sort of a boom-and-bust pattern that we have seen in Florida,” Smith said. “The years between 2002 and 2006 were the biggest in terms of absolute increases since the early ’70s, and then just as we experienced in the ’70s we are going from a period of high- to low-growth numbers.”

The county projected to grow the fastest in percentage terms between 2007 and 2010, Lafayette in Florida’s Big Bend, is something of an anomaly because it owes its top spot to prison construction, Smith said. It is predicted to grow from 8,215 in 2007 to 9,200 in 2010, he said.

Otherwise, many of the high-growth counties are the same as in past years, he said.

Flagler, which was the fastest-growing county between 2000 and 2007, jumping from 49,832 to an estimated 93,568, is expected to continue to expand at a rapid rate, to 103,500 by 2010, Smith said. Its coastal location, proximity to Jacksonville and relatively low cost of living, as well as the presence of the large Palm Coast development, contribute to its high ranking, he said.

Other rapidly growing counties are Sumter, which owes its surge in part to prison expansion and the increasing number of residents at The Villages retirement community, and Osceola County, which receives spillover from nearby Orlando.

In terms of absolute numbers, the counties expected to make the biggest gains between 2007 and 2010 are Miami-Dade, from 2,462,292 to 2,512,300; followed by Orange, from 1,105,603 to 1,154,200; and Hillsborough, from 1,192,861 to 1,234,900.

The overall index is two points below its January level, which then marked its worst record in 16 years, said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. In February, it rose three points to 73 before dropping in March.

“Consumer confidence is now the lowest it has been since December of 1991, when it hit a record low of 64,” he said.

Four of the five components that make up the index fell this month. The largest decrease was in perceptions about national economic conditions over the next year, which fell 12 points to 53, followed by perceptions of national economic conditions over the next five years, which fell nine points to 74. Perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket household items fell four points to 65, and perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago fell one point to 64. The only component to rise was perceptions of personal finances one year from now, which rose two points to 86.

“Given these levels and the retail sales data from the U.S. Census Bureau, it is clear that consumers are not in a position to revive an economy that is almost certainly in a recession,” he said.

Home sales and prices, both of which have fallen disproportionately in Florida for the past year, are among the factors affecting Floridians as well as everyone else in the United States, McCarty said.

The housing market woes have led to a shake-up in financial markets as investors across the globe questioned the prudence of U.S. lending practices, McCarty said. They are now withholding the cash needed to fund ongoing lending efforts, he said.

In response, the Federal Reserve Board has engaged in a series of unprecedented interventions to restore confidence in financial markets, including taking on mortgage debt from troubled firms such as Bear Stearns and lowering interest rates sharply, McCarty said. The drop in interest rates has contributed to the falling dollar against other currencies, which makes goods from gasoline to cereal more expensive, he said.

“Our economic problems are unlikely to turn around over the next several months,” McCarty said. “However, some of what needed to happen has already occurred.”

Home prices are falling to reasonable levels and in parts of Florida are now where they would have been without the run-up over the past few years, he said.

“We expect housing prices in many Florida markets to bottom out by July, following another weak home-buying season,” he said. “Although it will be a long time before real estate returns to 2005 prices, it will be a reasonable time for Floridians waiting to buy a house to enter the market.”

And with the passage of the property tax amendment, those Floridians with Save Our Homes equity will be in a good position to move within Florida, he said.

“Many economists expect slow growth to return by the end of the year and solid growth to return by early next year,” he said. “It is useful to keep in mind that there are investors out there with money to lend, an essential ingredient for a growing economy. When they are confident that their investments will grow, they will return.”

It also is clear from the international fallout that the U.S. economy is firmly integrated into the global markets and stands no chance of failing, he said.

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for March was conducted from 399 responses.

Consumer confidence is designed to help predict buying patterns by measuring the mood of consumers toward purchasing. Although other economic indicators also predict buying patterns, consumer confidence tends to be available sooner. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The value of the index is in comparing changes over time rather than looking at an isolated month.

The year before, West Nile virus unexpectedly struck nearly 3,000 people in Colorado, killing more than 60. Similar outbreaks seemed virtually inevitable throughout the country for the next year — especially in Florida, where the mosquito and bird-borne disease seemed inevitable.

Even after months of preparation, states such as California, Arizona and Texas suffered heavy casualties in 2004. In Florida, however, four major hurricanes and a tropical storm had splattered mosquito and bird populations across the state, leaving the virus no means of reproducing and spreading.

Meteorological challenges continued to hold the virus at bay for the next three years — another heavy hurricane season followed by two years of drought. But this year, the weather could actually be “normal,” and University of Florida entomologists could think of no scarier proposition.

Already this season, high levels of eastern equine encephalitis virus have been documented in parts of Central Florida. These early outbreaks may not bode well for the upcoming mosquito season.

“Depending on the summer rainfall patterns, conditions in Florida could be perfect for us to finally be hit by some of the diseases we’ve been narrowly ducking the last few years,” said Jonathan Day, professor of medical entomology at UF’s Medical Entomology Laboratory in Vero Beach, part of UF’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. “We’re watching very closely so we know what to prepare for.”

As Day outlines in a paper published in this month’s Journal of Medical Entomology, there is a distinct chain of events that leads to a Colorado-like epidemic, and that chain begins in early January with specific rainfall, drought and temperature patterns.

For example, a series of droughts such as those reported in peninsular Florida during the last two years, could isolate mosquitoes into small areas of moisture-rich land. During that time, the confined mosquito population interacts with the birds that are attracted to the fresh water. The birds and mosquitoes become a captive audience and cycle any virus that is trapped in that space with them.

When rains return, the now infected mosquito population would then be set free to spread the disease to other birds and animals, including humans, on which they feed.

There are currently more than 560 meteorological recording stations across Florida carefully monitoring the Sunshine State’s weather patterns.

Many in the state may already be feeling the buzzing pests’ bites, but the information gathered at the recording stations and by many other experts across the state allow an analysis of what the current conditions may mean for July — the bloom of mosquito season and potentially the most dangerous time for arboviral diseases.

Of course, mosquito-borne diseases have probably been a problem since humans first inhabited the state of Florida 15,000 years ago. However, the increasing density of the human population in Florida makes the problem far more potent, Day says.

For example, widespread outbreaks of St. Louis encephalitis virus struck peninsular Florida in 1977, with 110 human cases. Thirteen years later, it struck again with 226 cases.

In his paper, Day points out how both outbreaks followed strikingly similar rainfall and drought patterns, patterns that can be tracked and are predictive of future mosquito-borne disease outbreaks.

But, of course, the crystal ball isn’t only focused on weather patterns. Knowing which mosquito species are dangerous is also vitally important.

“The type of mosquito not only tells us what kind of disease we could be dealing with, but also when and how to take precautions,” said Roxanne Rutledge Connelly, a UF entomologist who helps teach one of the most recognized courses in identifying mosquitoes in the world.

For example, if the potentially dangerous mosquito population is the Asian tiger mosquito — a relatively new invasive species to the United States known for spreading dengue fever in Hawaii and Southeast Asia — then the game is completely different than that for the vast majority of other mosquito species.

The Asian tiger mosquito not only feeds in bright sunlight, but it needs significantly less water to breed than most of its American cousins. So, control and prevention programs must consider these issues.

“We have more ability now than ever before for predicting these outbreaks and doing something about them before they get out of hand,” Day said. “There are vaccinations, animal control measures and insecticides. The truth is that our best tool is still general public awareness; but it’s the most difficult tool of all to put into use, because it takes the most time, effort and preparedness.”

See also: Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory’s Encephalitis Information System.

“It sounds like an old song resung, but our respondents are still keeping the faith in the real estate market,” said Wayne Archer, director of UF’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies. “It’s not that we don’t see some lessening of the market, but it’s nothing like the sensational doom that dominates the news about residential housing.”

The latest quarterly survey of Florida real estate trends completed in January and released this week shows declining optimism about commercial real estate, which had been a bulwark in the property market, Archer said. Occupancy is expected to fall for industrial, office and retail property, as rental rates are beginning to lag inflation, signaling that real rates (adjusted for inflation) may fall, he said.

Respondents continue to expect only slightly more decline in the sales for new single-family homes, while the picture for condominiums, although more pessimistic, has improved slightly, he said.

“Despite growing near-term concerns about recession, residential foreclosures, falling house prices and disruption of financial markets, our survey respondents maintain an unchanged, even slightly positive view of investment in Florida real estate at this time,” Archer said.

Although there is a staggering number of housing foreclosures in a few counties, foreclosure patterns vary widely at the statewide level, Archer said. While Lee, St. Lucie and Osceola counties are considered among the country’s foreclosure capitals, most counties in North Florida, especially Alachua and Leon counties, are in good shape, he said.

The three worst counties all share lower housing costs than surrounding counties, which attract marginal home buyers who may be eligible only for subprime mortgages, Archer said.

“If you worked in Collier County but couldn’t afford to live there — maybe you were a construction worker — where could you go?” he said. “Well, if you stretched hard and qualified for a subprime loan, you might be able to buy a house in Lee County.”

Similarly, prospective home buyers who work in West Palm Beach but can’t afford to live there may choose to move to St. Lucie County and commute, while people employed in the Orlando area might be able to afford a home in less expensive Osceola County on the southern outskirts, he said.

The rest of Florida is a little worse off than the rest of the nation but not dramatically so because its subprime meltdown is offset by the still frozen snows of the north, he said.

“There are pessimists who think people are going to pack up and leave Florida, but when I stand outside on these clear winter days, I think ‘they’re not going far,’” Archer said. “As long as people keep moving here, the growth will bring us a correction that you won’t get in industrial states like Ohio, Michigan or Illinois.”

Even in the worst counties, there are signs of Florida’s attractiveness with the growing popularity of “vulture ventures,” in which people move in to buy distressed properties thinking they can make huge profits as the market corrects itself, he said.

Another factor in Florida’s favor is the aging of the baby boomers, some of whom have considerable wealth, Archer said.

“A lot of baby boomers are closing up shop and deciding where they want to be in the future,” he said. “As you get a little older, you get a little more sensitive to the cold, and Florida is going to look pretty good to them.”

Although it won’t save Lee County on Florida’s southwest coast, prospects for international investment, especially with the weak dollar, may spell relief for the 40,000 condominiums sitting vacant in Miami, Archer said.

“With possibly half of these luxury condominiums in an urban setting with spectacular views, they could appeal to high-income individuals throughout the world, especially from Latin America,” he said. “Eventually downtown condominiums may be hard to find as land becomes scarce.”

The January report is 10th in a series. The series is the only Florida-centered survey of leaders and professional advisers in the real estate industry. The largest group of respondents was appraisers, about 61 percent, followed by consultants and brokers.

“I think a few years ago, a lot of the public wouldn’t have been comfortable eating flowers, but squash blossoms have been a real delicacy in Italian cooking for centuries,” said Sicignano, of The Breakers Palm Beach. “Now, at certain times, people just can’t get enough of them.”

The large, edible flowers that grow on some squash varieties have experienced a surge in popularity in the last few years, especially in early spring. The haute cuisine trend represents more than another Easter item on menus.

Thanks in part to researchers at the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, it’s become another valuable source of income for Florida farmers.

“We get a couple of cents for each squash,” said Nancy Roe, who operates a 1,000-acre farm near Boca Raton. “But for each blossom, we can get fifty cents.”

The flowers have yet to become a substantial source of income for farmers like Roe, simply because they can’t currently grow enough.

In the past, squash farmers have focused on plants that produce female flowers — the ones that would someday produce squash. As a result, these plants would often only have one or two male flowers, the kind harvested as a food item.

Russell Nagata, an associate professor at the IFAS Everglades Research and Education Center in Belle Glade, is working with farmers like Roe to change that. In 2005, Nagata and his colleagues began evaluating which types of squash can deliver both vegetables and flowers for maximum profit.

Overall, zucchinis seem to deliver the most bang for the buck — however, the flower business isn’t always just about volume. It can also be about timing.

Demand for the blossoms only comes at certain times, and anticipating those times and having flowers available can be tricky.

“Sometimes the plants are ready to do in the winter months,” Nagata said. “And you can imagine that that’s not always the time when people see flowers on their plate.”

To further complicate matters, the blossoms only have a shelf life of one to two days before they become useless to chefs, who are highly selective about the bright yellow-orange colors and firm texture the flowers must possess.

“There is more demand for these flowers now because people are more educated than ever about food because of the popularity of food shows on television,” executive chef Sicignano said. “So, the exciting part is that we can now use what many would consider nontraditional food items in our cuisine. The challenging side is that those items have to be up to expectations of a more informed dining audience.”

Raw, the flowers offer a refreshing, almost cucumber-like taste. Uncooked, the flowers are commonly used as a garnish on main dishes.

“But that’s probably the most boring thing you can do with them,” Sicignano said.

With a background in Italian cooking from his experience at the Waldorf Astoria in New York, the chief prefers to prepare the blossoms as appetizers — such as stuffed with a crab and corn blend and then tempura fried.

“Both diners and farmers have become more educated, and now many chefs are excited because we can offer the types of dishes we’ve been hiding away on our own home dinner tables for years,” Sicignano said.

A University of Florida study suggests that repeatedly using large amounts of nitrogen fertilizer can ignite a population explosion of Southern chinch bugs — the No. 1 insect pest of St. Augustinegrass, the state’s most popular turfgrass.

The findings were presented in Jacksonville today at an Entomological Society of America meeting.

“Everything in moderation,” said Eileen Buss, an associate professor of entomology with UF’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. “When we try to overly manage a natural system we get the balance out of whack.”

UF turfgrass experts advise homeowners to use no more than 1 pound of slow-release nitrogen fertilizer per 1,000 square feet of lawn, a recommendation found in the document “St. Augustinegrass for Florida Lawns,” available at http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/LH010.

In the study, Southern chinch bugs produced the most eggs on St. Augustinegrass fed the equivalent of 2 pounds nitrogen per 1,000 square feet per month.

That rate is a worst-case scenario, she said, but not unrealistic because people sometimes deliberately overfertilize in their zest to have the greenest lawn in the neighborhood.

That more-is-better approach has become riskier in the past five years because Southern chinch bugs in Citrus, Escambia, Flagler, Hillsborough, Lake, Orange and Volusia counties have developed resistance to pyrethroids, the class of pesticides commonly used to control the insects, Buss said.

Resistant chinch bugs may be able to survive exposure to bifenthrin, a pyrethroid that is the top choice for Southern chinch bug control in Florida. However, pyrethroids should still perform well against nonresistant populations of Southern chinch bugs.

Buss co-authored the study with turfgrass specialist Laurie Trenholm, an associate professor of environmental horticulture, and doctor of plant medicine student Megan Gilbert.

Conducted at a UF research facility in Citra, it involved chinch bugs raised on St. Augustinegrass that received nitrogen fertilizer at one of five rates, equivalent to 0, 0.5, 1, 2 or 4 pounds of nitrogen per 1,000 square feet of turf, applied monthly.

The chinch bugs were paired to reproduce, each pair placed in a cage containing St. Augustinegrass fertilized at the same rate the insects previously experienced. The results showed females raised on grass given 0 or 0.5 pounds nitrogen produced 15 to 20 eggs per week; those on grass given 1 or 2 pounds produced 25 to 35. Females on grass given 4 pounds briefly produced 45 eggs per week, then declined to 20.

Adult female Southern chinch bugs live about two months, and produce eggs the entire time.

Buss said female chinch bugs produce more eggs on healthy St. Augustinegrass, which accounts for the differences in egg production. Future research may examine the role of the nutrients phosphorus and potassium in chinch bug population growth, and the possibility that overfertilization may reduce turfgrass resistance to chinch bugs.

Though this study was conducted in a laboratory rather than a yard, Buss says the results are relevant to homeowners. Southern chinch bugs don’t move around much, staying in the same area unless they can’t find food.

And with the insects producing a new generation every four to six weeks during Florida summers, increased egg-laying could lead to rapid population growth in overfed lawns.

Buss said she’s not sure how applicable the results are in other Gulf Coast states where St. Augustinegrass is commonly grown, due to environmental differences.

Studies on other chinch bug species elsewhere in the United States show that it’s common for nitrogen fertilizer to boost egg production, said chinch bug expert Fred Baxendale, an entomology professor with the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

“What Dr. Buss is seeing is in line with prior research,” he said. “I think her research is interesting, I think it’s valid and it needs to be taken further.”

Four of the five components that make up the index rose this month. The largest increase was in perceptions of national economic conditions over the next year, which jumped 11 points to 66, followed by expectations of national economic conditions over the next five years, which rose eight points to 82. Two components edged up two points: perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago to 67, and expectations of personal finances a year from now to 84. The only component to fall was perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items, which dropped three points to 71, its lowest point since December 1991.

“We certainly did not expect this increase,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “We think the overall rise this month is a reaction to the passage of the stimulus package that will result in payments to a majority of Florida households as well as the passage of the property tax amendment, which was supported by 64 percent of the voters. Both of these are, at least temporarily, bright spots for Florida consumers.”

The data over the past two months shows that confidence fell steadily through January, rose during the first week of February and increased dramatically in the second week, McCarty said. By the third week of February, confidence had fallen to January levels, he said.

“We expect this month’s overall rise in confidence to be a temporary increase and that confidence will decline next month,” he said.

Higher consumer confidence levels come at a time when policy makers are trying to avert a recession or at least minimize the effects of one, McCarty said. However, the positive effects of both the stimulus package and the property tax amendment will probably be short-lived, and the Federal Reserve Board’s decision to cut interest rates carries some negative side effects, he said.

“By lowering interest rates, which may help loosen credit for borrowers, the Federal Reserve has further weakened the dollar against other currencies,” McCarty said. “This has contributed to the rise in the price of oil and other commodities as can be seen in the recent rise in the price of a gallon of gas, which has increased more than seven cents in the past week.”

Although the stimulus package offers a welcome rebate check, those borrowed funds add to the deficit, McCarty said.

“And the property tax amendment will no doubt result in fewer services at the local level, and may have long-term downside effects on the state economy as homeowners take their tax exemptions with them when moving in Florida,” he said.

There are some bright spots for Florida homeowners hoping to sell, though, McCarty said. For instance, the property tax amendment makes it more affordable to move to a new home, he said. The stimulus package passed by Congress temporarily increases the loan amounts that can be purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from $417,000 to $729,750, and Florida has no shortage of homes in this price range, he said.

Interest rates have declined in response to the cuts by the Federal Reserve, although recently the credit markets are not moving in sync with the Fed rate cuts, McCarty said. Most importantly, average home prices have been falling to a point where they are approaching the level they would have been at this time without the housing run-up, he said.

“We anticipate that by July home prices in many areas of Florida will be at or near bottoming out,” he said. “This should attract some buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines for prices to stabilize, assuming they can quality for a loan.”

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for February was conducted from 408 responses.

Consumer confidence is designed to help predict buying patterns by measuring the mood of consumers toward purchasing. Although other economic indicators also predict buying patterns, consumer confidence tends to be available sooner. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The value of the index is in comparing changes over time rather than looking at an isolated month.

Except for 1987, when there were no fatalities, the last year a single human death occurred from a shark attack was in 1985, said George Burgess, director of the International Shark Attack File housed at UF’s Florida Museum of Natural History. By comparison, there were four deaths each in 2005 and 2006, and seven in 2004.

“It’s quite spectacular that for the hundreds of millions of people worldwide spending hundreds of millions of hours in the water in activities that are often very provocative to sharks, such as surfing, there is only one incident resulting in a fatality,” he said. “The danger of a shark attack stays in the forefront of our psyches because of it being drilled into our brain for the last 30 years by the popular media, movies, books and television, but in reality the chances of dying from one are infinitesimal.”

Advances in medical treatment, greater attention to beach safety practices and increased public awareness about the danger of shark attacks are all likely reasons the fatality rate so far for the 21st century, at 7.6 percent, has been lower than the 12.3 percent recorded for the 1990s, Burgess said.

The number of shark attacks overall increased from 63 in 2006 to 71 in 2007, continuing a gradual upswing during the past four years, he said.

“One would expect there to be more shark attacks each year than the previous year simply because there are more people entering the water,” he said. “For baby boomers and earlier generations, going to the beach was basically an exercise in working on your suntan where a swim often meant a quick dunking. Today people are engaged in surfing, diving, boogie boarding and other aquatic activities that put them much closer to sharks.”

Occasionally, the number of attacks may drop in a particular year because of changes in meteorological or oceanographic conditions that affect water temperature and salinity, such as the frequency of hurricanes and tropical storms, Burgess said. But scientists don’t put too much stock in these year-to-year fluctuations, preferring to look at long-term trends, he said.

Traditionally, about half of the world’s attacks occur in United States mainland and Hawaiian waters, but the proportion was greater in 2007, Burgess said. Last year’s total of 50 attacks returned to 2000 and 2001 levels of 53 and 50, respectively, after dropping from 30 to 40 for each year between 2003 and 2006, he said.

Elsewhere, there were 12 attacks in Australia, up from seven in 2006 and 10 in 2005, but down slightly from the 13 attacks recorded in 2004. There were two attacks each last year in South Africa and New Caledonia, with single incidents reported in Fiji, Ecuador, Mexico and New Zealand.

There also was an upswing in attacks along the Florida coast, jumping from 23 in 2006 to 32 in 2007. There has been a gradual increase in human-shark skirmishes in the Sunshine State since they dropped from 37 in 2000 to an 11-year-low of 12 in 2004, he said.

Within Florida, Volusia County continued its dubious distinction as the world’s shark bite capital with 17 incidents, its highest yearly total since 2002, Burgess said. Attractive waves off New Smyrna Beach on the central Atlantic coast are popular with surfers, he said.

Additional U.S. attacks were recorded in Hawaii — seven — marking a five-year-high, along with South Carolina, five; California, three; North Carolina, two; and Texas, one.

Fifty-six percent of the 2007 victims were surfers and windsurfers; followed by swimmers and waders, 38 percent; and divers and snorkelers, 6 percent.

Last year’s Sept. 30 fatal attack involved a 23-year-old woman from France who was snorkeling off the Loyalty Islands archipelago in French New Caledonia and became separated from a friend, Burgess said. She was a nurse who had just finished a hospital contract in Noumea and was taking a brief vacation before flying home, he said.

“We advise not getting yourself isolated because there is safety in numbers,” he said. “Sharks, like all predators, tend to go after solitary individuals, the weak and the infirm, and are less likely to attack people or fish in groups.”

Last year had few spectacular attacks or heartwarming rescue stories, Burgess said. “It was mostly minor injuries,” he said. “There weren’t too many made-for-movie moments.”

“Consumer confidence in Florida reflects the same conditions we had during the recession of 1990-91,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Florida is almost certainly in a recession now, and the country is not far behind. Most economists agree that we are in for at least two quarters of very low growth.”

This month’s drop to its lowest level since December 1991 is due to declines in four of the five components that make up the index. The biggest drop was in consumers’ expectations about national economic conditions over the next year, which fell 10 points to 55, its lowest level since August 1992.

Two components fell five points. Perceptions of national economic conditions over the next five years sank to 74, and expectations about personal finances a year from now dipped to 82. Perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket consumer items fell one point to 74. The only component to rise was perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago, which edged up one point to 65.

“There is still some possibility that recessionary conditions will remain localized to some states, such as Florida and California,” McCarty said, noting that the preliminary consumer confidence reading for the nation from the University of Michigan was up five points to 80, a full 10 points higher than Florida.

“Unfortunately, these states that are experiencing recession conditions make up a very large part of the total U.S. economy,” he said. “It is very possible that the effects of the housing crunch in these states may result in a recession for the entire country, if we aren’t in one already.”

The hope is that the economic stimulus package making its way through Congress will negate some of the effects of the housing crisis and its related effects on credit markets by at least temporarily getting consumers back in the stores, McCarty said.

“If consumers can continue to support the economy until exports and business investment increase, the recession may be more like 2001 than 1990-91,” he said.

The 2001 recession was mild compared with the 1990-91 downturn, which lasted three quarters and resulted in the loss of nearly 2 million jobs, he said.

“The worst case is a scenario like the 1970s when the country experienced two recessions with long-lasting effects,” he said.

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for January was conducted from 533 responses.

Consumer confidence is designed to help predict buying patterns by measuring the mood of consumers toward purchasing. Although other economic indicators also predict buying patterns, consumer confidence tends to be available sooner. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The value of the index is in comparing changes over time rather than looking at an isolated month.

“Consumer confidence among Floridians is eroding,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “The big declines in confidence in December were among low-income households, which fell five points to 64, while middle- and upper-income households fell three points to 77.”

This month’s drop to its lowest level since August 2002 is due entirely to declines in two of the five components, both at 16-year lows. The biggest decline was in perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items, which fell 10 points to 74, its lowest level since January 1991. The other component, perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago fell six points to 64, its lowest reading since December 1991.

Two components rose slightly. Perceptions of U.S. economic conditions during the next year rose two points to 64, although the November level of 62 was among the lowest in years. Expectations of personal finances a year from now actually rose a point to 87. Perceptions of U.S. economic conditions during the next five years remained flat at 79.

“Despite the strong showing immediately following Thanksgiving, retailers are reporting relatively weak holiday sales since then,” McCarty said. “As has been the case for the past several months, the main drivers of consumers’ increasingly pessimistic outlook is housing, the stock market and to a lesser extent, the rise in prices, particularly gas prices.”

While gasoline prices have declined some in December, they remain above $3 a gallon, and the stock market, which has been extremely volatile during the past six months, is currently down nearly 1,000 points from its all-time high, McCarty said. But housing is the biggest culprit, he said.

“Everyone now recognizes the excesses of the housing market over the past three years, and the extent to which the problems have spread throughout the U.S. and global economies through mortgage-backed securities,” McCarty said.

With the large stock of housing inventory, and some prospective buyers waiting for prices to drop to their lowest levels, the question remains when prices will hit bottom, he said.

The most positive scenario calls for prices not to drop much lower than they are already, he said. When considering the median price of Florida housing statewide over the past 15 years, the period from 2004 to 2006 appears to be an aberration, McCarty said. The peak was in June 2006 when the median price was $257,800, he said.

Since then, prices have declined 13.8 percent by October 2007 to $222,100, with some saying the recent drop is close to where the price would have been without the run-up, he said.

A second scenario, which excludes the last four years of aberrant data, suggests the median home price should bottom out at about $187,000, which at the current pace of declines, would not occur until March 2009, he said.

A third scenario assumes the economy must pay a penalty for the run-up, a position supported by limited credit, rising foreclosures and the sheer number of houses available.

“My best guess is that the market will have to factor the recent run-up into the overall trend and that the bottom in prices may be reached as early as the second quarter of 2008,” McCarty said.

The big question is how much of a penalty must be paid for the run-up, he said.

“One thing is absolutely certain,” he said. “The peak price reached in June of 2006 is many years away. Anyone who hopes to sell their home at that price will have to wait a very long time. Buyers on the other hand may want to consider second quarter 2008 prices as very near lows.”

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for December was conducted from 494 responses. Consumer confidence is designed to help predict buying patterns by measuring the mood of consumers toward purchasing. Although other economic indicators also predict buying patterns, consumer confidence tends to be available sooner. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The value of the index is in comparing changes over time rather than looking at an isolated month.

The findings could mean some homeowners in green communities don’t know enough about how to reduce their environmental impact, said Mark Hostetler, an associate professor with UF’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences.

Green communities are designed to have less environmental impact than traditional housing developments. The homes often feature energy-saving appliances, extensive insulation and yards with native plants; common areas typically include lots of green space and drainage systems that minimize stormwater runoff.

People moving into green developments may simply be interested in open space, energy efficient homes or the chance to see wildlife, Hostetler said, and may not bring with them a strong commitment to environmental issues.

“You have to engage the people that live in these communities,” Hostetler said. “It’s a combination of things, of not only education, raising awareness, but understanding the barriers that everyday people have, to make it easier for them to involve themselves in sustainable type of living.”

In the studies, Hostetler and graduate student Krystal Noiseux queried new homeowners in two pairs of Central Florida communities. Each pair consisted of a green housing development and a traditional one of similar size, home value and location.

The researchers mailed questionnaires to more than 900 households in total, of which 340 responded. The questionnaires were sent in June 2006 and mailed only to residents who bought their homes in the past two years.

Residents of both types of communities were concerned with indoor air quality, green space and energy efficiency, all of which are usually priorities in green developments.

But residents of both types of communities had only a moderate- to low-level commitment to environmental issues, responses showed. The questionnaire contained a total of 40 questions about environmental knowledge, attitudes and behaviors.

Those results are significant, Hostetler said, because all homeowners can influence their own environmental impact. Day-to-day choices such as setting the thermostat, watering the lawn or choosing plants for the yard influence a household’s resource consumption. The studies indicate that residents of green communities don’t necessarily conserve resources better than residents of traditional developments.

He believes that in any community, green or traditional, there’s a small percentage of people who’d go all-out to live sustainably, and another group who’d refuse to inconvenience themselves in the least.

The rest — perhaps 80 to 90 percent, by his estimate — are willing to reduce their resource consumption but may not understand how. For example, using ceiling fans rather than an air conditioner may save hundreds of dollars per year, but a homeowner may not think to do it.

It’s hard to say how much the UF findings can be generalized to other parts of the country; the studies need to be replicated elsewhere, Hostetler said. However, the results do indicate that developers of green communities should thoroughly educate home buyers.

What’s certain is that home buyers — and the general public — will be hearing more about green homes and communities, said Hal Knowles, a consultant for UF’s Program for Resource Efficient Communities, part of the Florida Cooperative Extension Service.

Green construction became popular in the United States during the 1990s, following the formation of the U.S. Green Building Council, a nonprofit that promotes sustainable building practices and offers a widely recognized certification program, Knowles said.

Green certification can be an important marketing tool, said Nancy Richardson, director of Audubon International’s Audubon Signature Programs, which certify new developments.

“A developer is looking for something that makes them unique in the marketplace,” Richardson said. “There’s no doubt that (certification) does help.”

But some environmentalists debate which standards are needed, Hostetler said.

“There is much discussion about the bar being set too low in these certifications and it is sometimes too easy being green,” he said.

“There is more than one world of real estate, and while you can paint a very grim picture of single-family housing and condos, rental and commercial property look on balance to be healthy and normal even though they are not as rosy as they were a year ago,” said Wayne Archer, director of UF’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies.

The findings are from the center’s quarterly survey of Florida real estate trends that was completed in October. A total of 339 professional real estate analysts and investors participated in the survey, with appraisers making up the largest group, 60 percent, followed by consultants, 10 percent, and brokers, 9 percent.

The report’s release coincides with Florida being reported as one of a handful of states most vulnerable to the effects of the subprime mortgage fallout, with one widely quoted property expert even going so far as to say that “Florida is the epicenter of all things wrong with the housing industry,” Archer said.

“What these apocalyptic accounts fail to consider is that job formation and migration to the state are still strong, and these are the factors that drive the real estate market,” he said.

Many of the pessimistic reports look only at the single family and condo picture, which are not doing well, but investment, occupancy and rental rates for retail, office, industrial and hospitality are considered to be progressing normally, although not in as good a shape as a year ago, Archer said.

The outlook for nearly all of the commercial and rental markets — apartment, office, retail and industrial — calls for them to increase slightly less than the rate of inflation compared to slightly more than the rate of inflation that was predicted a year ago, he said.

“With all the horror stories in the news about foreclosures, people can’t help but be a little more sober and cautious,” he said.

The one segment of the single-family market upon which the UF survey collects detailed information, the new home market, is the least distressed, Archer said. “While the outlook for existing home sales is grim for the next quarter or two and possibly even over the next year, the outlook for new home sales looks like it’s going to be stable a year from now, at least in some markets,” he said.

Inventories of existing single-family homes are at their highest levels in a long time, with part of the problem stemming from second home purchases, Archer said. Many people who were disappointed with the stock market returns invested their retirement savings in second homes or rental homes with the intention of selling them for a quick profit, only to have the market turn sour, leaving a huge inventory, he said.

To make matters worse, people who might normally meet the marginal requirements for a mortgage can no longer qualify because of the current credit crunch, Archer said. At the same time, homeowners who are selling expect to get the same price they might have received a year or two ago, he said.

“Unfortunately, those prices had inflated enormously and in most cases there is simply going to have to be some adjustment over the next year or two,” he said.

Florida’s housing picture is the worst on the southwest coast, particularly for existing single-family homes, but it is mixed in southeast Florida, Archer said. “While the condo story for Miami and southeast Florida is disastrous, it’s a different situation with freestanding single-family homes, where the volume of sales is expected to stabilize in the next year or so,” he said.

One factor to its advantage is that the southeast coast is a haven for international investment and the recent decline in the dollar makes it even more attractive, he said.

The single-family housing market is healthiest and apartment occupancy rates most stable in north and central Florida, Archer said. In Jacksonville, half the respondents expect an increase over the next year in absorption rates, the ability of the real estate market to sell off houses that are for sale, he said.

Christina Locke, who is in a combined program pursuing a master’s of mass communication and a law degree, wrote her master’s thesis on her research of the so-called “Son of Sam” laws in each state that has one.

These laws most often apply when a convicted criminal writes a book or collaborates on a movie project, Locke said. They are designed to seize the criminal’s profits and give the money to the victims or the victims’ families.

According to her thesis, 28 states have laws on the books modeled after the original 1977 New York law created to prevent the serial killer known as the Son of Sam from receiving any profits from the book “Confessions of Son of Sam.”

The problem, Locke said, is that the original New York statute was unanimously ruled a violation of the First Amendment by the U.S. Supreme Court and struck down in 1991. Since then, most of the derivative laws in other states have not been revised at all, leaving them critically vulnerable to constitutional challenges.

Because these laws restrict speech specifically based on its content, they are subject to the strictest judicial scrutiny. The Supreme Court said the New York law was dangerously overbroad and that if such restrictions had been in place in the past, they would have prevented the publication of important works such as Malcolm X’s autobiography and Thoreau’s “Civil Disobedience.”

Since 1991, California, Nevada and Rhode Island have had their Son of Sam laws overturned by courts on First Amendment grounds.

The solution is to use general forfeiture laws to claim assets and profits that would normally go to convicted criminals, Locke said.

General asset forfeiture laws allow the state to seize assets that are the proceeds or instruments of crime. These laws are frequently used in drug trafficking cases and are not specifically geared toward preventing criminals from any kind of speech. Consequently, they are not subject to the same strict constitutional scrutiny as Son of Sam laws, but their effect can be the same as long as the seized funds are used to compensate victims, Locke said.

“Politically, maybe general forfeiture laws aren’t as effective,” Locke said, “but they work, which I think is more important.”

Florida used general forfeiture statutes in 1994 to seize proceeds from Gainesville serial killer Danny Rolling’s macabre artwork and a book co-written with his then-girlfriend Sondra London, “The Making of a Serial Killer.” The state split the $16,000 it took among the five families of the killer’s victims, Locke said.

The decision to simply use the general forfeiture statute in Rolling’s case, the exact situation for which Son of Sam laws were created, probably indicates that prosecutors did not have faith in the constitutional viability of Florida’s “Son of Sam” law, Locke said.

The most important conclusion reached by her research, Locke said, is that state legislatures must not wait until a court overturns their “Son of Sam” laws to recognize the need to make revisions or change their policies.

“These laws are so rarely used, but when they are, they are really important,” Locke said. “Why wait until a high-stakes case comes along and it’s too late?”

“The growing pessimism about U.S. economic conditions seems to be among all income levels,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Overall we expect the holiday retail season to be weak compared to last year as consumers are cautious about spending too much. We expect growth in retail sales of no more than 3 percent and possibly much lower.”

With the continued decline in Florida’s housing market, consumers’ financial insecurity is increasing, he said.

Survey respondents were particularly pessimistic about U.S. economic conditions over the next year. That component of the index fell a steep 11 points to 62, in contrast to the index measuring perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years, which rose two points to 80.

“Florida consumers seem to understand the gravity of the fallout from the housing crisis and resulting credit crunch but they still believe in the long-term viability of the U.S. economy to turn this around,” McCarty said.

The housing crisis shows no signs of improving soon, with the consequences continuing to unfold, McCarty said. The downturn is having many indirect effects, in addition to hurting those who cannot sell their homes and those who have lost their homes to foreclosure, he said.

Lenders who resold loans or packaged mortgage debt in elaborate securities now face a backlash from investors, many of whom are international, McCarty said. This has created a shortage of credit, which previously fueled not only home loans but many other kinds of spending from corporations buying other corporations to individuals buying cars, he said.

Much of this financial activity is now on hold as investors, both domestic and international, wait to see how the situation plays out, he said.

“We expect the housing market to bottom out by the second quarter of 2008 at which time existing home prices will be low enough that some prospective buyers will make purchases,” he said. “However, 2005 prices are years away.”

This month’s drop in the overall confidence rate follows a two-point rise in October.

“We were a bit perplexed by the rise in confidence last month,” McCarty said. “It now appears that rise was a reaction to a short-term decline in gas prices early in October. Now that gas prices have gone up, as expected, confidence is at the same level as in September.”

Of the three remaining components making up the index this month, one fell, one rose and one remained the same. Perceptions of personal finances a year from now fell four points to 86, while perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago rose two points to 71. Perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items remained unchanged at 84.

Perceptions of personal finances showed a small improvement among low-income households, but a slight decline among middle and upper-income households, he said.

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for November was conducted from 475 responses.

Consumer confidence is designed to help predict buying patterns by measuring the mood of consumers toward purchasing. Although other economic indicators also predict buying patterns, consumer confidence tends to be available sooner. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for the year. The value of the index is in comparing changes over time rather than looking at an isolated month.

Which one doesn’t belong? Actually, starting at this Saturday’s annual football match-up between the University of Florida and Florida State University, they all go together. That’s because UF on Saturday will become the first university in the nation to attempt to counteract the greenhouse gases created by a college football game.

To do it, UF and its partners, the Florida Forestry Association and Environmental Defense, are arranging for approximately 18 acres of rural North Florida land to be set aside and managed as a pine plantation forest for 10 years. UF calculates that this is an acreage and period of time sufficient to absorb all the carbon emissions from the game.

Dedee DeLongpré-Johnston, director of UF’s Office of Sustainability, is coordinating the effort on behalf of the university.

“This is a way for us to highlight the fact that even routine college events like football games generate large amounts of greenhouse gases,” she said. “We also want to show that we can help to counteract these emissions, and that Florida’s forests have value beyond their usefulness for paper products.”

The land is part of a 100-acre tract being set aside by UF supporters Jim and Winston Bailey. The remainder may be used for future carbon offset projects.

Carbon dioxide, which results from the burning of fossil fuels by power plants and vehicles, is the leading human contributor to global warming. As a result, governments and scientists are seeking ways to offset human carbon emissions through tree growth or other methods that sequester, or store, carbon.

One method already being pursued worldwide involves trading carbon emissions from one source for carbon uptake or storage by another mechanism. The UF initiative falls into this class of efforts, although, unlike others, it seeks to achieve the trade in the same geographic region so that it is more readily verifiable.

DeLongpré-Johnston said that with an anticipated 88,000 fans, this year’s game is expected to generate more than 1,750 metric tons of carbon dioxide. One metric ton, the standard measure of carbon dioxide, equals about 2,204 pounds. Carbon sources include fans and the FSU team traveling to Gainesville, lighting and operating the stadium, and lodging.

“We worked with the International Carbon Bank & Exchange to calculate the emissions,” DeLongpré-Johnston said. “Individual cars carrying fans to the game will have the greatest impact, producing 63 percent of the game’s carbon. Operating the stadium will generate 15 percent, with hotel and private air travel making up 10 percent of emissions.”

More details on the calculations are available at the UF Office of Sustainability Web site, www.sustainable.ufl.edu.

To counter that carbon output, scientists in the UF School of Forest Resources and Conservation calculated the amount of carbon stored in a managed pine plantation tract. Forests sequester carbon because trees take up carbon dioxide and release oxygen as part of normal growth. The scientists determined that 18 acres of managed forest, or about 14 football fields worth, were sufficient to take up and store the game’s carbon.

“Private forest landowners own more than 60 percent of Florida’s forests, and well-managed forests play a vital role in combating climate change, says Jeff Doran, executive vice president, Florida Forestry Association. “The faster a tree grows, the more carbon dioxide it removes. Since Florida’s climate provides optimal growing conditions, our forests can be very efficient scrubbers of greenhouse gases.”

To compensate the Baileys for preserving the forest, Environmental Defense, an environmental advocacy group, will pay the family to manage the plot for the next decade. Environmental Defense is now completing a technical review of the project, and will acquire additional offsets as needed to store the game’s carbon permanently.

“Florida’s 1,300 miles of coastline mean we’re the state that is most vulnerable to climate change, so it’s especially fitting that this is the first NCAA game to help tackle the problem,” said Jerry Karnas, Florida Climate Project Director for Environmental Defense.

DeLongpré-Johnston said an important goal is to raise awareness about the amount of carbon generated on college campuses and the challenges associated with dealing with it.

“At 18 acres for one game, some quick calculations reveal that we would need 126 acres to be managed for 10 years just to offset our football program for one year,” she said.